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Seth WalderFeb 25, 2026, 06:20 AM ET
- Seth Walder is an analytics writer at ESPN, that specialize in quantitative diagnosis. He is moreover a conventional on “ESPN Bet Live” and helps duvet sports actions making a bet. Seth has been at ESPN since 2017. He beforehand worked on the Recent York Day-to-day Recordsdata overlaying the Jets and Giants. You may per chance well follow Seth on X by technique of @SethWalder.
The 2026 NFL quarterback market is ready to originate up, and the long trot on the game’s major situation hangs within the steadiness for plenty of groups. And with handiest one surefire first-rounder within the 2026 NFL draft, plenty of groups may want to imagine a contemporary QB by technique of free agency or a trade — or persist with the man they’ve upright now.
The Vikings need to settle on if they wish a quarterback to advance in to replace, compete with or relieve up J.J. McCarthy. The Cardinals need to settle on whether or no longer Kyler Murray has played his last snap with the workforce. Discontinue the Colts are searching for to combine an injured Daniel Jones with a short-term resolution? And to whom would perhaps well the Dolphins and the Jets turn for hope?
So, who would perhaps be the quarterback for every workforce? I tried to learn the tea leaves and predict how this can all shake out. In this case, I am particularly predicting who would perhaps be the Week 1 starter for next season. Which diagram even the Chiefs — with Patrick Mahomes coming off an hurt — are a good deal a count on impress right here. Let’s dive into the 32 doubtless Week 1 starters for 2026.
Soar to:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LV | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
Procuring for any individual contemporary
Cleveland Browns
Predicted 2026 starter: Kyler Murray
I surprise if the Seahawks successful the Broad Bowl with Sam Darnold at quarterback would perhaps be upright for the reclamation quarterback market. And frankly, Murray is a a lot less daunting proposition now than Darnold used to be when he signed with the Vikings two years within the past.
Even though Murray’s play dropped off last season, he is handiest 365 days eliminated from a 63.4 QBR in 2024, the ninth simplest that season. That used to be his 2d high-10 QBR marketing campaign; he ranked seventh in 2021.
Cleveland’s everlasting witness a quarterback would perhaps well lead it to Murray, critically with the draft missing high-flight QB prospects past Fernando Mendoza. Murray is due $42.5 million in money, which hovers round stunning mark for one season, critically since he’d be below contract for non-guaranteed years at similar costs in 2027 and 2028. Cleveland is tight on cap space (due in huge piece to quarterback Deshaun Watson‘s contract), so I’d seek files from the Cardinals to employ about a of Murray’s 2026 money in substitute for a Browns draft opt.
Some would perhaps well clamor to present Shedeur Sanders more enlighten time, however I mediate that would perhaps be a mistake. A fifth-round opt whose 18.9 QBR would possess been by some distance the worst within the league had he played enough to qualify desires to be regarded as the longest of shots, so the Browns need to be pursuing plenty of quarterback alternate suggestions.
No topic Cleveland boasting a equally sturdy defense, it’d be overly optimistic to examine the 2026 Browns to the 2025 Seahawks. Cleveland is in a lot worse form than Seattle used to be a year within the past on memoir of its offensive roster is utterly missing — it desires a total O-line! — although the Browns form Murray and he regains his outdated make. However take discover of, this would perhaps well be a multiyear affiliation, as Murray has three years left on his contract. It is a gamble price making for the Browns.
Miami Dolphins
Predicted 2026 starter: Malik Willis
Let me be the millionth person to glue the Packers’ backup quarterback to the Dolphins, however I mediate Miami is Willis’ almost definitely landing situation.
Miami’s contemporary mind belief consists of two aged Packers in general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan and coach Jeff Hafley. Whereas I mediate NFL coaches and front space of enterprise personnel dramatically overemphasize the importance of beforehand working with a participant, there may per chance be now not any denying it plays a mammoth role in personnel selections. Subsequently, I mediate it fully will enhance the probability Willis outcomes in Miami.
Willis’ ends up in his restricted time all the diagram through 2024 and 2025 had been amazing. He posted an 86.3 QBR in that span, a plus-7% completion percentage over anticipated (per NFL Next Gen Stats), zero interceptions (three fumbles, though) and 9.2 yards per dropback. He scrambled on 13% of his dropbacks and had 17 designed rushes.
However he started handiest three games, so the Dolphins would perhaps be basing their 2026 starting quarterback chance on an especially minute sample dimension. And these three games got right here below coach Matt LaFleur, an elite offensive dressmaker. So, there no doubt is possibility. However there may per chance be moreover upside.
The Dolphins are hamstrung at quarterback and by technique of cap space because of Tua Tagovailoa‘s extension. Tagovailoa used to be benched in the direction of the cease of last season. However Willis is the form of participant they need to develop an exception for, and signing him would perhaps be price a gamble within the quest to search out their quarterback of the long trot.
Minnesota Vikings
Predicted 2026 starter: Kirk Cousins
The Vikings managed 14 wins in 2024 with a quarterback (Darnold) who ranked handiest 14th in QBR. Whereas they’ll no longer continuously possess a defense as dominant as that workforce had, I need to imagine Minnesota is hankering for scrumptious quarterback play.
J.J. McCarthy’s efficiency last season didn’t present he would perhaps well ship it. Given how Minnesota let its known amount in Darnold stroll out the door in settle on of McCarthy, I believe coach Kevin O’Connell will are searching for to return to known, sturdy manufacturing. And Cousins represents that. The ragged quarterback used to be enjoying about a of basically the most provocative ball of his profession with the Vikings in 2023 forward of struggling an Achilles hurt. Cousins wasn’t the similar with Atlanta, though he did play neatly on the cease of last season.
The Falcons are anticipated to release Cousins. After they enact, the Vikings would perhaps well rob him relieve.
Recent York Jets
Predicted 2026 starter: Spencer Rattler
The Jets had been the toughest workforce for me to predict in this reveal. There are quite lots of doubtless candidates.
Recent York no doubt would perhaps well be a landing space for a non-Mendoza rookie quarterback, and it would perhaps well develop sense for the Jets to be within the Willis sweepstakes. If they wish a genuine ragged, presumably the Jets would witness at Cousins or Derek Carr, though neither would perhaps be the needed long-term resolution. Or Recent York would perhaps well look about a trade candidates, with Mac Jones, Tanner McKee and Rattler among them.
Even though he in a roundabout diagram gave formulation to rookie Tyler Shough, Rattler used to be sturdy last season in Recent Orleans. He recorded a 50.3 QBR and a plus-3% completion percentage over anticipated, and his 9% off-aim price used to be the bottom among all QBs with on the least 100 cross attempts. The 2024 fifth-round opt is getting into his third season, so he would perhaps well unexcited toughen. And Rattler doubtless would mark less on the trade market than Jones, as neatly.
Early-season hurt stand-in
Indianapolis Colts
Predicted 2026 starter: Gardner Minshew
The Colts are in a attention-grabbing bind, having found success with Daniel Jones last season however:
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No longer having him below contract for 2026 or past.
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Wanting a stopgap resolution although they enact ship Jones relieve after he suffered an Achilles hurt in December.
Let’s start with the most necessary point. I believe the workforce desires to ship Jones relieve however would doubtless settle on to mark him to a multiyear deal desirous about he is unlikely to play till unhurried 2026 on the earliest. However the Colts possess some leverage. As a lot as they would perhaps well need Jones, they moreover provide him a higher path to starting again in a field the set he is had more success than wherever else. Indianapolis would potentially provide him more money than any individual else because of that success.
However if the Colts ship Jones relieve, they’ll need one other QB to start the season. And they’d desire it to be any individual they’ll win with within the short and medium term — however potentially no longer any individual who would mark too a lot or to whom they would need to commit past 2026.
Enter Minshew. The journeyman had more success enjoying for Shane Steichen in 2023 than at any plenty of point in his profession. Steichen obtained a lot more out of Minshew — who recorded a 60.4 QBR that season — than he has out of Joe Flacco (50.0) or Anthony Richardson Sr. (44.4). That 2023 earned Minshew $15 million fully guaranteed from the Raiders the subsequent offseason, however it completely went so badly in Vegas that he played for the Chiefs for upright $1.2 million last season. It used to be feared that Minshew had torn his ACL in December, however he didn’t.
On memoir of Minshew’s huge title has fallen, he would perhaps be an economical option for the Colts to pair with 2d-year QB Riley Leonard whereas they await Jones to heal.
Kansas City Chiefs
Predicted 2026 starter: Marcus Mariota
Of course, this hinges on the restoration timeline of Patrick Mahomes, who had surgical operation in December to restore two ligaments in his left knee. Mahomes has indicated he desires to be relieve for Week 1, and presumably that can happen. However any prediction about his Week 1 situation is upright a guess, so I imagine that the Chiefs would are searching for to be cautious with Mahomes, given his importance to the franchise.
If this is so, they’d desire a official backup who can ideally win about a games whereas Mahomes ends up his restoration. I deem Mariota fits the invoice.
The 32-year-worn stood in for Jayden Daniels for eight begins in Washington last season and used to be succesful, with a 50.2 QBR. He has a protracted historic past of being sturdy, which is genuinely what Kansas City desires — a participant who can assist the workforce afloat in Mahomes’ absence however is willing to be a backup and will no longer be overly costly.
2:08
Where need to Chiefs witness to toughen with financial savings from Mahomes’ restructuring?
Louis Riddick and Kimberley A. Martin peep the set the Chiefs need to witness to toughen with the cap space equipped by Patrick Mahomes’ restructured contract.
Decent bet
Arizona Cardinals
Predicted 2026 starter: Jacoby Brissett
The Cardinals assemble no longer possess to tear on from Murray, and with a contemporary regime coming in, presumably they’ll no longer. However the vibes from last season pointed to a quarterback alternate, and Brissett is mainly the almost definitely Week 1 starter, although handiest as a bridge after starting 12 games in 2025. Murray is currently slated to develop $42.5 million in money, per OverTheCap.com, so if the Cardinals are ready to trade him, they would assign all or piece of that by turning to the a lot more cost effective Brissett (due $5.4 million in money).
Even though Brissett averaged 280.5 passing yards in his begins last season, that quantity used to be more a demonstration of how on the general he passed than his upright effectivity, as his 41.2 QBR used to be neatly under average. However he can wait on as a short-term repair. The Cardinals would perhaps well draft Alabama’s Ty Simpson — presumably unhurried within the most necessary round or within the 2d — and Brissett would perhaps well start the 2026 season forward of yielding to the rookie.
Atlanta Falcons
Predicted 2026 starter: Michael Penix Jr.
Penix suffered a torn ACL in November, so his situation for the season opener is in count on. Also, what more or less participant will the Falcons salvage when he returns to the sphere? Penix used to be inconsistent last season, producing a QBR of 83 or increased in four of his nine games … and a 31 or decrease in four others.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Predicted 2026 starter: Aaron Rodgers
I assemble no longer mediate Rodgers’ return is a foregone conclusion, however Mike McCarthy’s introductory news conference pushed me to pondering this can happen. When asked if he needed Rodgers relieve, McCarthy stated, “I mean, definitely. I don’t see why you wouldn’t.”
No topic McCarthy’s comment, there are plenty of causes the Steelers would perhaps well now not desire Rodgers relieve. He is a 42-year-worn quarterback who used to be last an above-average starter in 2021 (to be stunning, he did win MVP that season). And Rodgers moreover need to settle on whether or no longer he desires to play soccer in 2026.
However I believe the Steelers will no longer possess the appetite to rebuild or rob a flier on an unknown QB. In hiss that they’ll are attempting to re-develop the Packers of yesteryear, with Rodgers and McCarthy on the helm. Rodgers recorded a 44.4 QBR with the Steelers last season (Twenty third simplest). He continued to excel at turnover avoidance, however it completely got right here alongside with short, salvage throws that weren’t that productive. Rodgers’ 2.59-2d average time to throw used to be the quickest within the league, and 76% of his cross attempts had been below 10 air yards, increased than for any plenty of quarterback.
Pittsburgh can count on its defense, and with a neatly-kept addition or two, issues would perhaps well ruin upright when coupled with a turnover-averse Rodgers — although his upside is severely restricted at this point of his profession. Most likely that’s why they don’t seem like ready to saunter all of it down upright but.
1:15
The Aaron Rodgers predicament going through Mike McCarthy
Jeff Saturday and Jason McCourty discuss Aaron Rodgers’ short-term impact and the Steelers’ long-term QB thought.
Locked in
Baltimore Ravens
Predicted 2026 starter: Lamar Jackson
After successful the MVP in 2023 and nearly successful it in 2024, Jackson had a down season in 2025 by which he overlooked about a games and wasn’t moderately himself when he played. Now Jackson would perhaps be in a contemporary system below offensive coordinator Declan Doyle, however there need to be excessive confidence that he can return to make in 2026.
Buffalo Funds
Predicted 2026 starter: Josh Allen
The Funds possess it higher than presumably any individual else on the game’s major situation, as Allen would arguably be the QB1 in a leaguewide quarterback redraft. Allen is coming off a “down” year by which he unexcited obtained just a few MVP votes. He carried out handiest seventh in QBR, however his receiving alternate suggestions weren’t sizable. If Allen is on the sphere, the Funds possess a upright probability to win any sport, no topic the opponent.
Carolina Panthers
Predicted 2026 starter: Bryce Young
The pendulum on how a lot the Panthers need to deem in Young continued to swing in 2025, as it has for his total profession. On one hand, Young led the Panthers to the playoffs and regarded moderately improved infrequently. However he moreover had his fragment of down moments. He ended the season with a 47.6 QBR (22nd simplest) and handiest 5.7 yards per dropback — nothing to write dwelling about.
He showed enough to be the starter again in 2026 and possess his fifth-year option picked up in 2027. However the Panthers need to be hesitant to decide to Young past that till he exhibits more enlighten.
Chicago Bears
Predicted 2026 starter: Caleb Williams
Williams took a gargantuan step in his 2d season and delivered some in actual fact unforgettable throws all the diagram through Chicago’s inconceivable trot to the divisional round of the playoffs. There are unexcited accuracy questions — Williams ranked last among QBR-qualifying quarterbacks in off-aim price and completion percentage over anticipated (per NFL Next Gen Stats). However the Bears know they’ll win with Williams on the helm.
Cincinnati Bengals
Predicted 2026 starter: Joe Burrow
A toe hurt derailed more than half of of Burrow’s 2025 marketing campaign, serving to lengthen the Bengals’ stressful three-year flow of missing the playoffs. If Cincinnati can salvage a wholesome Burrow and toughen its defense to toughen him, the Bengals would perhaps be relieve within the postseason.
Dallas Cowboys
Predicted 2026 starter: Dak Prescott
Prescott’s excellent play last season used to be overshadowed by the Cowboys missing the playoffs. He ranked fifth in QBR and third in completion percentage over anticipated (per NFL Next Gen Stats) despite enjoying with the lead on handiest 26% of his snaps. If the Cowboys’ defense can toughen to merely average and Prescott maintains his 2025 level of play, Dallas need to with out danger return to the postseason.
Denver Broncos
Predicted 2026 starter: Bo Nix
Losing Nix to hurt within the divisional playoffs used to be a brutal blow for the Broncos, who would perhaps well possess (will deserve to possess?) developed to the Broad Bowl in every other case. That used to be very upright on memoir of Nix carried out the season sturdy. Even though he used to be 15th in QBR for the season (58.3), he registered a 66.3 from Week 13 on (the identical of ranking seventh). I beforehand believed Nix used to be upright enough to win with, however he showed signs that he would perhaps well ascend to change into a participant the Broncos would perhaps well win on memoir of of.
Detroit Lions
Predicted 2026 starter: Jared Goff
Fancy the leisure of his workforce in 2025, Goff didn’t attain his outdated level of play, when Detroit’s offense used to be on the cease of the league. However desirous about that he played within the relieve of an offensive line that quietly ranked thirty first in cross block win price last season, Goff’s 18th-ranked QBR begins to change into more comprehensible. He, and the Lions, no doubt can salvage relieve to outdated make in 2026.
Green Bay Packers
Predicted 2026 starter: Jordan Worship
Worship took a step forward in 2025, ending third in QBR within the relieve of Drake Maye and Brock Purdy thanks to his ability to lead particular of most necessary errors. Worship committed handiest eight turnovers last season and took sacks at a 4.3% price (seventh simplest). If the Packers proceed to salvage that level of efficiency from Worship, they’ll be contenders.
Houston Texans
Predicted 2026 starter: C.J. Stroud
The outcomes weren’t gorgeous the last time we seen Stroud — he threw four interceptions in a playoff loss to the Patriots. However ball safety used to be a power for most of 2025 and Stroud used to be mostly sturdy, critically desirous about that Houston ranked 30th in cross block win price. We unexcited assemble no longer moderately know Stroud’s long-term path, however he is locked in for 2026.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Predicted 2026 starter: Trevor Lawrence
The 2d half of of 2025 sooner or later seen Lawrence change into the participant who had been promised since he entered the league in 2021. Lawrence ranked fifth within the league in QBR after Jacksonville’s Week 8 bye — and from Week 11 on he moved up to third. Usually I am cautious of strictly having a possess a study 2d-half of splits to project forward, however there may per chance be an cheap clarification in this case, as it used to be his first year in coach Liam Coen’s system. Jaguars fans possess the upright to be bullish on Lawrence for 2026 and past.
Las Vegas Raiders
Predicted 2026 starter: Fernando Mendoza
Is it too early to name this locked in? I assemble no longer mediate so.
The Raiders need a quarterback badly. The Heisman Trophy winner looks to be bask in he fits the invoice. And major: There’s no plenty of quarterback within the draft who looks critically shut to his tier. Even now, Mendoza’s odds of being selected first by the Raiders are -20000 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
2:00
Is Fernando Mendoza no longer throwing at combine a gargantuan deal?
Mike Tannenbaum and Dan Graziano peep Fernando Mendoza’s doubtless combine week after his chance no longer to throw there.
Los Angeles Chargers
Predicted 2026 starter: Justin Herbert
Herbert has long been held in a somewhat increased regard than his manufacturing would present, and the pairing with contemporary offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel (and, ideally, two wholesome tackles) need to give us the alternative to sooner or later seek Herbert develop with an even supporting cast. This may per chance occasionally doubtless well be the year we seek Herbert’s elite ceiling.
Los Angeles Rams
Predicted 2026 starter: Matthew Stafford
Stafford has already introduced he’ll be relieve for 2026. After successful MVP last season, he and the Rams will completely revisit a contract that currently underpays him, however it completely’s laborious to deem the 2 sides no longer working it out. The expectation for Stafford is nonetheless excellence, so long as he is wholesome.
Recent England Patriots
Predicted 2026 starter: Drake Maye
Traipse, issues had been undeniably rough for Maye within the Broad Bowl (presumably because of hurt). However Maye used to be excellent in 2025 and used to be the league’s Most Precious Participant in my gaze. Recent England is situation for years but to advance and can inch all-in in 2026 vibrant it has an elite starter on a rookie contract.
Recent Orleans Saints
Predicted 2026 starter: Tyler Shough
Shough’s quick success used to be a nice surprise last season. The numbers weren’t overwhelming — twenty first in QBR, 16th in completion percentage over expectation, 12th in turnover price and 18th in yards per dropback — however they had been sturdy enough over nine begins to demonstrate his NFL doubtless. The Saints would perhaps well need found themselves a quarterback — and outdoor the most necessary round, too.
Recent York Giants
Predicted 2026 starter: Jaxson Creep
As miserable as 2025 used to be recordwise for the 4-13 Giants, it gave the franchise optimism going forward. The supreme piece of that hope is Creep, who carried out 17th in QBR as a rookie (despite mostly being with out emerging huge title receiver Malik Nabers) and lifted the workforce when he played. Recent York’s offense averaged 0.05 EPA per play when Creep used to be on the sphere, roughly the similar as the Broad Bowl champion Seahawks.
If Creep can rob one other soar in Year 2 and the leisure of the offense’s core — Nabers, offensive style out Andrew Thomas and 2d-year operating relieve Cam Skattebo — can moreover set up wholesome, the Giants’ enchancment would perhaps well happen fast.
Philadelphia Eagles
Predicted 2026 starter: Jalen Hurts
Hurts is upright a year eliminated from being a Broad Bowl MVP quarterback, however his stock has fallen after a miserable 2025 season by which he ranked handiest twentieth in QBR. If he would now not toughen in 2026, will we be inserting him in a clear class in this reveal next year? Given the Eagles’ discover fable, I bet so.
San Francisco 49ers
Predicted 2026 starter: Brock Purdy
Purdy is coming off a superb 2025 season … when he used to be on the sphere. The nine games he did play had been stellar, producing a 72.8 QBR that ranked 2d handiest to Maye’s. And when Purdy used to be active, the 49ers on the general regarded bask in basically the most provocative offense in soccer (critically after they weren’t enjoying the Seahawks). If Purdy can set up wholesome, the 49ers would perhaps be contenders again.
Seattle Seahawks
Predicted 2026 starter: Sam Darnold
Even after a 2d straight 14-win marketing campaign and main the Seahawks to the Broad Bowl title, or no longer it’s unexcited cheap to quiz which Darnold the Seahawks will salvage going forward. He used to be legitimately lights-out within the most necessary half of of the season however then used to be one in every of the least efficient QBs within the 2d half of. He carried out someplace between upright enough and genuinely upright within the playoffs.
Within the cease, Darnold carried out nineteenth in QBR, however the Seahawks clearly feel gorgeous upright about him heading into 2026 desirous about how last season became out.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Predicted 2026 starter: Baker Mayfield
Mayfield started 2025 sizzling however cooled off to enact 12th in QBR and with a minus-2% completion price over anticipated, per Next Gen Stats. Mayfield can play at a upright enough level that the Buccaneers can win the division and then some with toughen round him. And given his mark — $40 million in 2026 — it makes sense for the Buccaneers to live on the similar trajectory at quarterback.
Tennessee Titans
Predicted 2026 starter: Cam Ward
Closing year’s first overall opt carried out last in QBR among qualifying quarterbacks. However desirous about what he went through as a rookie — an early-season teaching alternate, no speeding assault and a lackluster receiving community — Ward showed enough flashes to account for the optimism in the direction of him when he entered the league. He’s going to be Tennessee’s starter for the most necessary season of the Robert Saleh period.
Washington Commanders
Predicted 2026 starter: Jayden Daniels
After a stellar rookie marketing campaign, Daniels’ sophomore season used to be an unequivocal disappointment, with knee, elbow and hamstring accidents limiting him to handiest seven games in 2025. However presumably more being concerned used to be Daniels’ effectivity when he used to be on the sphere, with his QBR shedding from 67.7 in 2024 to 44.7 in 2025, which would perhaps well possess ranked Twenty third had he played enough to qualify. It prompts a count on — used to be 2025 an outlier, or used to be it 2024?
