Barnwell: What went staunch for the Seahawks, Patriots —

We saw two very slightly about a one-rating NFL playoff games in Sunday’s conference championship spherical.

The Patriots outlasted the Broncos within the snow to earn 10-7 within the AFC Championship Sport, while the Seahawks slid previous the Rams in a high-scoring NFC Championship Sport, winning 31-27. The result: The Patriots and Seahawks are going to Clear Bowl LX on Feb. 8.

Did the Patriots merely income from Bo Nix no longer being within the Broncos’ lineup, or used to be this a assertion sport for the protection? Did Sam Darnold exorcise his Rams demons and present he can earn the ample sport? And were instructing choices guilty for every the Broncos and Rams?

Subscribe: ‘The Bill Barnwell Expose’

I will model via all of that and are trying and create sense of the 2 conference title games and what they imply. Let’s launch within the NFC.

Soar to:

NE-DEN | LAR-SEA

Seahawks 31, Rams 27

Sam Darnold ultimately came via. In spite of what occurs within the Clear Bowl, Darnold has formally carried out the rewrite of his occupation and long gone from disappointing draft pick and journeyman to a meaningful share of a monumental group. And now, after definitively conquering a Rams group that perceived to maintain carved out a home in Darnold’s head, he is one earn a long way flung from a Clear Bowl title no one could per chance per chance maintain anticipated.

At the same time as Darnold rose from the depths of the time he spent with coaches Adam Gase and Matt Rhule on hopeless teams, it used to be the least bit times easy to qualify his successes. He used to be playing in a dream order with the Vikings in 2024 given the instructing workers and playmakers, and evolved metrics saw him as something closer to an lifelike quarterback. His brutal discontinuance to that season against the Lions and Rams in consecutive weeks cheerful the Vikings that they were better off transferring ahead with J.J. McCarthy as a much less-costly solution below heart.

Darnold joined the Seahawks, and for 3 months, he used to be the NFL’s most atmosphere pleasant QB. That success, nonetheless, additionally came within a play-action-heavy arrangement and with a breakout necessary individual in receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and when Darnold met the Rams once more in Week 11, he cratered in a 21-19 loss. The 2018 No. 3 pick dropped from first within the NFL in Total QBR earlier than the Rams sport to Twenty seventh the remaining of the means.

Even because the Seahawks beat the Rams of their December rematch, the myth of that sport used to be extra about what surrounded Darnold. He averaged decrease than 1 air yard per throw within the first half of, because the Seahawks tried to limit Darnold’s exposure to the Rams’ creep hasten. Darnold threw two picks, giving him six in two games against Los Angeles, nonetheless he made a handful of primary throws in some unspecified time in the future of the group’s fourth-quarter comeback and in previous traditional time to abet lead the Seahawks to a 38-37 victory.

The Seahawks hadn’t wished Darnold since then; they had relied on their protection and a resurgent working sport to gas their success down the stretch. That wasn’t the case Sunday. Running attend Kenneth Walker III had a monumental sport in relation to making unblocked or underblocked defenders miss, nonetheless Seahawks backs grew to become 22 carries into factual 66 rushing yards. And a dominant Seahawks protection came up with a main discontinuance within the fourth quarter to defend on to a four-point lead, nonetheless the Rams once more had exiguous distress marching up and down the field, averaging greater than 8 yards per play and scoring 27 functions. The Seahawks wished a monumental sport from Darnold.

They bought one. Darnold went 25-of-36 for 346 yards with three landing passes. His 82.9 Total QBR used to be the 2nd-handiest performance by a quarterback this postseason, trailing handiest Josh Allen‘s herculean effort to beat the Jaguars within the wild-card spherical. Without grand of a working sport all over the evening, Darnold thrived as a dropback passer, throwing for a season-high 248 yards and two touchdowns with out play fakes. The game used to be build on Darnold’s shoulders, and he many events answered with correct throws.

Most most certainly as considerable, the detrimental performs that sparked so grand frustration against the Rams within the previous mostly disappeared. Darnold wasn’t intercepted and build handiest one ball in danger all evening. He took three sacks, two of which came on performs in which creep rushers were staunch now on Darnold, leaving him no different nonetheless creep down and exhaust the soccer.

Darnold’s struggles dealing with sustained stress had been occupation-altering moments within the previous, nonetheless he went 5-of-11 for 102 yards and hit all three of his landing passes against stress. The viewed dread and frustration Darnold has confirmed at events, in particular against these Rams, merely wasn’t there. Darnold had been on both facet of the timing paradigm, both making an are trying to lengthen performs and taking too many sacks or getting sped up and getting the ball out too hasty while getting tricked into interceptions. He used to be many events on time, even below stress, within the NFC title sport.

Organizationally, it gave the influence the Seahawks realized that their handiest means via the Rams used to be with Darnold concerned and playing well, too. There used to be no repeat of the conceal-the-QB sport belief from the first half of of Week 16, as Darnold hit Rashid Shaheed up the sideline for 51 yards on the first third down of the game and averaged 8.6 air yards per throw in some unspecified time in the future of Sunday’s contest.

And after the Seahawks bought their fourth-quarter discontinuance and handed the ball attend to Darnold with a four-point lead, Seattle used to be in a position to bleed the Rams dry of timeouts and burn loads of the splendid clock by staying aggressive and throwing the soccer. Darnold dropped attend 5 events on 2nd and third downs, and he rewarded the Seahawks for their religion. On a 2nd-and-6 inside Seattle’s 10-yard line, offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak dialed up laborious play-action and depended on Darnold to flip his attend to the protection with out giving the ball up. And the QB made the steady approach to envision all of the kind down to Walker, who ran a long way flung from a address and picked up a prime down.

Darnold ignored an originate Shaheed on the ensuing 2nd down on one in all his worst throws of the evening, nonetheless he made up for it by hitting Cooper Kupp on a crosser on the subsequent play to web one other first down. With 3:05 to creep on the subsequent 2nd down, the Seahawks went attend to play-action, and Darnold escaped the pocket to hit Smith-Njigba for one other first down on the hasten. And with 2:17 left, one other boot off play-action drew a preserving penalty on Rams cornerback Cobie Durant, struggling with Los Angeles from getting the ball attend with the relaxation greater than a prayer. Darnold additionally hung on to the ball on the ensuing third down when no one blocked defensive address Braden Fiske, who ran over the Seattle quarterback on what regarded as if it’d be a busted play.

It be no longer putting off Darnold’s performance to suppose that his receivers helped. Shaheed, who had previously made a huge influence as a runner and return man with out in truth contributing as a receiver, ultimately brought in a deep shot within the outlet quarter. Smith-Njigba made a spectacular one-handed discover and spun Kam Curl around on a nook-post route for a 42-yard discover. Kubiak bought Smith-Njigba wide originate for a landing on a blown protection, lining the well-known individual wideout up within the backfield and working him into the discontinuance zone on a skim route. Kupp picked up three serious third downs. Heck, Jake Bobo stepped in and ran a post-nook route of his web for a rating.

Obviously, having a monumental sport against the Rams would no longer inoculate Darnold from struggling in some unspecified time in the future. He’ll be criticized if he would no longer play well within the Clear Bowl. However the notion that having Darnold as your quarterback used to be disqualifying to your possibilities of competing for a title? That the journeyman QB would fold when the games in truth mattered against monumental defenses? Those lines of notion are out the window. Darnold factual outplayed and beat the doubtless MVP in Matthew Stafford to creep to a Clear Bowl. For goodbye, Darnold’s previous has felt delight in prologue. Now, or no longer it’s factual the previous.

The Rams, within the period in-between, will feel delight in their 2025 losses all blend together. While Stafford and the offense grew to become the ball over six total events in two inexplicable defeats to the Falcons and Panthers, L.A.’s four other losses in most cases shared identical scripts. The Rams had weaknesses, and these weaknesses were exploitable. And while they had enough expertise and well-known individual vitality to duvet up these complications, subpar execution at the pass time had a mode of costing them close games against higher-echelon competitors.

If the Rams were shedding a ample sport this season, this used to be the identical outdated script:

1. The special teams were a catastrophe. The Rams carried out the season twenty sixth in DVOA there, and even that could per chance per chance per chance undersell how dramatically Sean McVay’s special teams came up short in key moments. A pair of blocked field targets cost them a earn over the Eagles in Week 3. One other block and a miss helped settle a loss to the 49ers in Week 5. The Rams additionally ignored a Forty eight-yard field goal and allowed a Shaheed punt-return landing to abet gas the comeback earn by the Seahawks in Week 16, main McVay to fire special teams coordinator Hasten Blackburn two days later.

Issues have not gotten grand better since then, though the Rams had previously managed to overcome these complications. The Panthers blocked an Ethan Evans punt with 4:18 to creep within the fourth quarter within the wild-card spherical, turning the ensuing short field staunch into a landing to take the lead. Evans then managed handiest a 33-yard punt late within the fourth quarter against the Bears, atmosphere Chicago up at midfield as it drove for the game-tying landing at the discontinuance of law. In each cases, the Rams were in a position to earn the game no subject these complications.

They weren’t slightly as lucky Sunday. This time, punt returner Xavier Smith used to be guilty. The 28-year-primitive muffed two punts, and he fell on the first, nonetheless wasn’t as lucky on the 2nd, as Smith fell over in what’s going to need to maintain felt delight in slack motion earlier than the ball bounced off his physique early within the third quarter. The Seahawks recovered on Los Angeles’ 17-yard line, and Darnold hit Bobo for a landing on the subsequent play. It used to be the most convenient turnover of the game, and the short field used to be doubtless the distinction in what used to be otherwise a extremely close contest.

Dareke Younger used to be the Seahawks player who at the muse forced Smith after which recovered the free ball. He ran previous Rams cornerback Emmanuel Forbes Jr. on punt protection. Forbes’ performance Sunday used to be share of one other well-liked field for the Rams of their losses …

2. Groups were in a position to make a choice on the cornerbacks. This used to be the definite passe sing on GM Les Snead’s roster, nonetheless the Rams depended on that their arrangement and creep hasten would be enough to duvet for an underwhelming crew of cornerbacks. Basically the most convenient vital pass they made to add expertise at the build used to be trading for Titans cornerback Roger McCreary, who didn’t play for many of the favored-or-garden season. Forbes outplayed expectations after struggling to are living as a lot as his draft stock in Washington, nonetheless teams were in a position to make a choice on him in key spots, in conjunction with performs within the Rams’ loss to the Eagles and on a pair of fourth-down ratings of their loss to the Panthers in Week 13.

The Rams maintain spent your total postseason biking via their ideas at nook. Ahkello Witherspoon sustained a shoulder damage early within the wild-card earn over the Panthers, ending his season, which led the Rams to bring attend Darious Williams, who used to be a wholesome scratch for that contest. Forbes additionally suffered a shoulder damage and played factual four snaps within the Rams’ earn over the Bears last week, main to higher roles for Williams and McCreary.

Forbes practiced in stout on Friday and had no damage designation heading into the game, nonetheless no subject being one in all the group’s traditional corners alongside Durant for many of the year, he didn’t play a single defensive snap within the first half of of Sunday’s loss. Forbes did play on special teams, which perceived to imply that he could per chance per chance per chance no longer be in a position to address if feeble on protection — nonetheless then the Rams build the third-year pro on the field for twenty-four defensive snaps within the 2nd half of. If Forbes used to be wholesome enough to play protection after halftime, why wasn’t he on the field beforehand?

The answer is the Rams were doubtlessly determined to discover Williams off the field at that time. The outdated, whose sing on the roster has doubtless been a made of his $8 million in wage guarantees this season, used to be a licensed responsibility for the Rams early in this sport. Shaheed merely torched the 32-year-primitive for a 51-yard discover on the outlet sequence, with an ankle address required to construct a landing. On the subsequent snap, Williams played off-protection against Smith-Njigba, with the Seahawks throwing a one-step hitch to their well-known individual wideout, who merely vaporized Williams with a juke. Smith-Njigba then picked up 16 yards on a curl against Williams within the 2nd quarter. In all, Williams played factual nine defensive snaps within the third quarter and none within the fourth.

Williams wasn’t the most convenient cornerback who struggled. Durant had a key third-down creep breakup, nonetheless he allowed a landing creep to Bobo, regarded as if it’d be one in all the defenders all for the blown protection on the Smith-Njigba rating, gave up a main third-down conversion to Kupp on the final pressure and carried out the day by being flagged for preserving on Kupp to all nonetheless discontinuance the game.

3. A fourth-down play goes awry. Some of these fourth downs were kicks, nonetheless the Rams’ loss to the 49ers swung on a crimson zone fumble by Kyren Williams and a subsequent fourth-down failure in previous traditional time, when McVay regretted dialing up a duo hasten for Williams on fourth-and-1 within the crimson zone while trailing by three. The 49ers stuffed it for no discover to discontinuance the game.

Closing time, McVay blamed himself. This time, after the Rams were stopped on fourth-and-4 from the 6-yard line with 4:59 to creep, he had a extra appealing offender. I’m no longer certain I’ve ever heard a coach blame the different group busting a protection for stopping their fourth-down play, nonetheless that’s exactly what McVay did after the game: “They kinda lucked into having two guys peel on Kyren right there. I know that can’t be part of their design. So it was a fortuitous bust by them.”

I would no longer think Seahawks followers for seeing that quote and screaming about sour grapes, nonetheless let’s realize what took build from McVay’s standpoint, too. On the fourth-and-4, the Seahawks were crowding the line of scrimmage and showing a zero blitz, suggesting to Stafford that he wished to discover the ball out hasty. On the snap, they in point of fact dropped out and rushed handiest three, bracketing Puka Nacua within the slot.

McVay has grown taking into account throwing the ball to Williams on third and fourth downs this season on different routes, the build Williams has various originate home and the potential to destroy inside or originate air counting on the leverage of the protection. It be a natural build to creep with the soccer when we defend in thoughts how grand attention teams are placing on Nacua and Davante Adams in key spots. Williams is no longer the least bit times in truth getting double-covered in these eventualities, and if the Rams create home for him with their route distribution, or no longer it’s nearly very unlikely for the defender to be staunch.

On this play, Williams released upfield and headed in opposition to the discontinuance zone. The discontinuance man on the line used to be security Julian Love, who regarded delight in he used to be beat hasty by Williams while making an are trying to fall into protection, nonetheless edge rusher DeMarcus Lawrence additionally dropped off and ran with Williams, doing away with the quick throwing lane for Stafford, who had to work in slightly about a areas. The outdated ultimately compelled a throw to Terrance Ferguson against tight protection from Devon Witherspoon, with the creep falling incomplete. Fortuitous protection bust? Or did Mike Macdonald acknowledge McVay’s tendency of constructing home for Williams in key spots and double the correct man at the correct time? In the close, it would no longer subject; the Rams failed on a key fourth down, and they never came in terms of taking the lead once more.

There used to be one other ingredient that hasn’t in most cases been a field in 2025. McVay has massively improved his sport management and fourth-down option-making this season after lagging within the attend of the remaining of the league for many of his tenure as a head coach. On Sunday, though, McVay made two apparent errors, and they could per chance per chance thoroughly maintain changed the game.

Unhurried within the third quarter, the Rams bought a huge destroy courtesy of Seahawks nook Riq Woolen, who dropped a pick, used to be then flagged for taunting to give the Rams a prime down, after which staunch now allowed a lengthy landing creep to Nacua on the subsequent play. While the Rams were per chance silent emotionally recuperating on the sideline from Woolen’s vicious taunting, McVay made a easy mistake.

The landing build the Rams down 5 at 31-26, pending the additional point. McVay kicked. There could be no longer a huge earn probability swing by kicking there, given how grand time used to be left, nonetheless ESPN’s earn probability mannequin means that teams can maintain to silent creep for two in that order if they’ve even a 33% probability of converting. The Rams, with a historically atmosphere pleasant rushing attack, no doubt would belief their possibilities of converting at a greater charge.

Coaches don’t appear to be essentially focused on these endgame eventualities late within the third quarter, and there’s an primitive instructing trope about how teams shouldn’t creep for two till the fourth quarter, despite the proven fact that the hot rating means that a 2-pointer would be precious. It be a kind of numbers-based exclusively arguments that never looks to be to defend up below scrutiny. Conservative coaches and announcers assuredly clarify taking the functions and kicking field targets early in games by the utilization of the hot rating and plugging in what a field goal would elevate out; indeed, we will talk in a minute about the Broncos, who were purported to take the functions and creep up 10-0 to create the game a two-rating contest within the 2nd quarter.

Why can maintain to silent the hot rating subject whenever you happen to take the functions nonetheless no longer subject whenever you happen to could per chance per chance per chance additionally very well be going for two? The advantages of going for two down 5 are apparent: You’d want a landing to earn whether or no longer that you must per chance per chance per chance per chance additionally very well be down four or 5, nonetheless whenever you happen to discover the 2-pointer, you’d be down three and can tie the game with a field goal. You wouldn’t know whenever you happen to’ll want that 2-pointer, nonetheless you additionally don’t know whether or no longer that field goal to create it a two-possession sport within the first half of will discontinuance up being a need to-maintain by the discontinuance of the day, both.

Computers can elevate out a higher job of sorting via the general hundreds of eventualities of how many possessions are left and the most sensible contrivance doubtless each group is to rating in approach of a 2-point option delight in that, nonetheless the most easy argument is to act on what the rating is correct now. And after a 28-point third quarter, neither group scored within the fourth, which implies that the Rams in truth did want that 2-pointer.

If the Rams had failed and stayed down 5, their endgame wouldn’t maintain changed. If they had succeeded and been down three, obviously, the Rams could per chance per chance maintain kicked a field goal to tie the game with 4:59 to creep on fourth-and-4. As a change, down by four functions, they had no different nonetheless to are trying scoring a landing.

The opposite mistake came on the ensuing possession. While the refs dominated that Kupp’s discover on third-and-7 gave the Seahawks a prime down, the preliminary replays perceived to hint that the outdated wideout could per chance per chance had been factual short of the sticks. McVay called his 2nd timeout, then had his field flag in his hand, nonetheless he didn’t risk the utilization of his final timeout to field the sing.

This used to be a definite mistake. Given a staunch sing and the game order, McVay very clearly can maintain to silent maintain factual thrown the field flag to maintain the sing reviewed as against calling a outmoded timeout. If the field had failed, nothing would maintain changed: The Rams would maintain in truth burned a timeout to discontinuance the clock. And if the field succeeded, obviously, the Rams wouldn’t maintain misplaced a timeout and could per chance per chance maintain feeble it to discontinuance the clock in approach of a fourth-down option by Seattle.

Coaches don’t need to close challenges, nonetheless there used to be merely about no downside here. The Rams were a minute a long way flung from the 2-minute warning, at which point all challenges attain from the replay gross sales sing. McVay had two challenges splendid. Until he notion that the preliminary sing used to be dominated short on the field, believed it used to be fourth down and feeble his timeout earlier than studying otherwise, this used to be a ignored different.

Those choices didn’t single-handedly settle the game, nonetheless the Rams stacked some sloppy option-making and work on the field. Stafford and the remaining of the offense couldn’t overcome these errors.

Patriots 10, Broncos 7

No one acknowledged it wanted to be handsome. Basically the most memorable sport of the 2001 Patriots’ day out to the Clear Bowl used to be their divisional-spherical earn over the Raiders in Foxborough. While we name that the “Tuck Rule” sport attributable to the fateful name that overturned a Tom Brady fumble, the most spectacular play from that matchup used to be Adam Vinatieri‘s forty five-yard field goal in whiteout stipulations to tie the game with 27 seconds to creep. The legendary kicker then hit a 23-yarder in previous traditional time, sending the Pats to the AFC title sport and ultimately to a pretty Clear Bowl victory.

Sunday’s earn over the Broncos could per chance per chance per chance no longer be slightly as memorable. It used to be determined by a 23-yard field goal from Andy Borregales, nonetheless that kick came early within the third quarter and used to be the most convenient successful are trying of 5 makes an are trying by the 2 kickers in this sport. Stipulations were handsome in some unspecified time in the future of the first half of, nonetheless by midway via the third quarter, climate took over the competition and diminished the game to something out of the Nineteen Seventies, each in relation to play desire and video constancy.

The Broncos managed factual 32 yards and one first down over their 5 possessions within the 2nd half of. Jarrett Stidham bought off to a right launch, nonetheless after the first quarter, his 26 dropbacks produced factual 37 acquire yards. Denver’s handiest probability of scoring within the 2nd half of came after a brutal 33-yard punt by Bryce Baringer, which handed the Broncos the ball in field goal vary, factual for Wil Lutz‘s forty five-yard kick to be blocked.

Stidham made the game’s biggest mistake, though. Going via stress on a third-and-4, he drifted backward and tried to discover originate air the pocket to steer definite of an intentional grounding penalty. Stidham tried to flip the ball out factual as he used to be hit by Christian Elliss. The play used to be at the muse dominated as grounding earlier than being reevaluated as a backward creep and fumble. The Pats were denied a defensive landing by the referees blowing the play pointless, nonetheless Drake Maye ran a landing in from 6 yards out to tie the game at 7.

The Broncos will feel delight in they ignored a possibility. Maye and the Patriots’ offense did exiguous in this sport, struggling to consistently pass the ball even earlier than the climate arrived. Fair two of Unique England’s 12 drives yielded greater than one first down. Denver security Talanoa Hufanga dropped what would had been an interception on the Pats’ opening sequence of the game, with the Broncos fooling Maye in protection because the 2nd-year well-known individual tried to throw a slant to Stefon Diggs.

If Stidham factual goes down for a innocent sack on that third-and-4 and the Broncos punt the ball away, they could per chance per chance had been OK. The climate could per chance per chance maintain saved the Patriots from having any probability of scoring within the fourth quarter.

Sean Payton used to be 2nd-guessed in some unspecified time in the future of and after the game for deciding against kicking a field goal to creep up 10-0 early within the 2nd quarter. With Denver facing a fourth-and-1 on Unique England’s 14-yard line, the ESPN Analytics mannequin used to be very cheerful with Payton’s option at the time. (Running the ball could per chance per chance had been preferable, though, to the Broncos placing the ball within the palms of their backup quarterback.)

Payton could per chance per chance maintain wanted to play for a low-scoring sport if he knew the climate plan used to be going to be as extreme as it used to be by the 2nd half of, nonetheless the means the game played out is evidence of how precious a landing could per chance per chance per chance even be in this kind of contest. If the Broncos kick a field goal and nothing else adjustments, the rating’s 10-10, and the game goes to previous traditional time, the build they’ve a 50-50 shot of winning. If they convert and rating a landing and nothing else adjustments, they earn 14-10 and creep to the Clear Bowl. Given how exiguous the Patriots were in a position to elevate out on offense, 14 functions could per chance per chance per chance thoroughly had been insurmountable.

The opposite what-if could be extra painful, provided that the Broncos didn’t maintain Bo Nix on Sunday. Nix had his usaand downs this season, nonetheless he used to be in truth a league-lifelike starter for the 2nd consecutive year, and that is the reason grand better than Stidham, who wasn’t in a position to elevate out grand after the scripted performs ran out. He hit Marvin Mims Jr. with a monumental throw previous a flat-footed Christian Gonzalez for a 52-yard discover to living up Denver’s handiest landing. But Stidham’s six other throws of 10 or extra yards downfield produced factual 6 yards.

Ending the year with out Nix used to be obviously depressed, and the Broncos were with out wideout Troy Franklin and misplaced fellow wideout Pat Bryant to an damage for the 2nd consecutive week. But this used to be a slightly wholesome group in 2025, with Nix and security Brandon Jones (who used to be effort late within the year) because the most convenient starters to attain the season on injured reserve. The Broncos were additionally one in all the league’s oldest teams on a snap-weighted age basis, and so while the Broncos elevate out maintain some young stars, Payton has relied on veterans and free agent additions to abet create them aggressive. That merely about led them to a Clear Bowl, nonetheless after going 9-2 in one-rating games and in conjunction with a tenth close earn against the Bills last week, the Broncos weren’t in a position to squeak out one other slim earn at home within the AFC Championship Sport.

Given these factors, or no longer it’s tricky to imagine them being attend here once more in 2026, though or no longer it’s gorgeous to suppose there weren’t many those that anticipated the Broncos to be hosting the Patriots in this sport at the launch of the season, both.

As for the Patriots, well, they could per chance per chance additionally very well be even extra complicated to think now than they were earlier than the postseason. Earlier than the playoffs, all individuals could per chance per chance per chance agree that Maye used to be playing lights-out soccer and that the Pats had benefited from playing a easy agenda. They ultimately carried out, per Legitimate-Football-Reference.com‘s methodology, with the tenth-most sensible traditional-season agenda for any group because the 1970 AFL-NFL merger. The postseason used to be purported to be a test of whether or no longer the Patriots were for staunch.

Winning means you creep the test, obviously, nonetheless it completely’s no longer exactly occurring the means we would maintain anticipated. Maye has struggled via a elaborate postseason, working a 51.1 Total QBR, which used to be roughly about what Tyler Shough had in some unspecified time in the future of the favored-or-garden season. He has held on to the ball too lengthy, fumbled six events and thrown two interceptions, though he used to be in a position to create it via Sunday’s sport with out turning the ball over.

Maye has made a handful of finest throws in some unspecified time in the future of this hasten, in conjunction with a flea-flicker to Mack Hollins that served as his handiest completion of greater than 10 yards on Sunday. He has additionally made an influence with his legs, which used to be Maye’s primary contribution within the Pat’s earn over the Broncos. He grew to become 10 carries into 65 yards, in conjunction with a 6-yard landing and scrambles of 13, 16 and 28 yards, which living up the game-winning field goal and two Borregales misses. Maye sealed the AFC up by conserving the ball on a third-down bare bootleg and outrunning Jonah Elliss to the sideline for a prime all of the kind down to discontinuance the game. It wasn’t a memorable passing performance, nonetheless Maye silent stumbled on a mode to add meaningful price on a day when the Pats couldn’t elevate out grand on offense.

And satirically enough, if Maye does discontinuance up winning the Clear Bowl, this could per chance per chance match down as one in all the extra spectacular runs via defensive juggernauts by any quarterback in most well liked memory. By EPA per play rankings, Maye has already beaten the third- (Texans), sixth- (Chargers) and seventh-handiest (Broncos) defenses in soccer. He is about to face the most convenient by this metric within the Seahawks in Clear Bowl LX. I could per chance per chance per chance no longer argue that he has been wherever in terms of as spectacular within the playoffs as he used to be in some unspecified time in the future of the favored-or-garden season, nonetheless if Maye wins in two weeks, there can no longer be many quarterbacks who maintain beaten four of the league’s high seven defenses in a single postseason hasten.

As a change, the myth of the playoffs for the Patriots has been their protection. While evolved metrics were silent taking into account Maye even after adjusting for quality of opposition, the identical wasn’t staunch for the protection. Unique England’s protection carried out the season twenty third in DVOA and 18th in ESPN’s Football Energy Index. The Pats misplaced well-known individual defensive address Milton Williams to a midseason ankle damage earlier than returned in Week 18, nonetheless they weren’t rated as a high-10 unit even earlier than he went down.

For the reason that launch of the postseason, though, the Pats maintain suffocated opposing offenses. They’ve allowed a total of 26 functions via three games. With the offense struggling, Zak Kuhr’s protection has additionally confronted a ton of possessions, making that an finest extra spectacular settle. The Pats are allowing factual 0.72 functions per pressure within the playoffs. Since 2000, the most convenient group to play three postseason games on their facet of the bracket and enable fewer functions per pressure is the 2000 Ravens, who were one in all the most dominant defenses in NFL historical previous.

Obviously, as the least bit times with the 2025 Patriots, there are causes to be skeptical. Each and every group the Pats maintain confronted used to be compromised by accidents. The Chargers were down their high two offensive tackles (Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater) and couldn’t offer protection to Justin Herbert. The Texans entered their divisional-spherical sport with out Nico Collins after which misplaced Dalton Schultz within the first half of, costing C.J. Stroud his high two receivers. And the Broncos were starting Stidham, who hadn’t thrown an NFL creep in two years, with a day out to the Clear Bowl on the line. Throw in some messy climate to abet out the protection, and we will have the option to talk ourselves into the Pats’ protection being a mirage.

The true fact is somewhere in between. This unit used to be depressed in relation to crimson zone performance in some unspecified time in the future of the favored-or-garden season, ranking fifth by EPA per play originate air the crimson zone and twenty eighth all over the 20. The Patriots in truth did miss Williams, who had three of the group’s 5 quick pressures on Sunday. Okay’Lavon Chaisson has had a occupation year, and he had a grand-wished right performance with Harold Landry III sidelined, nonetheless the strength of the Pats’ creep hasten is the inside stress from Williams and Christian Barmore.

Their other strength is at cornerback, and that is the reason the build the myth could per chance per chance per chance crystallize. When the Patriots signed Carlton Davis III this offseason in free company, it gave the influence they were establishing a definite belief of playing hundreds of man protection. The Pats had been one in all the league’s most man-heavy defenses below Bill Belichick and Jerod Mayo, and in Gonzalez, they already possessed one in all the league’s most attention-grabbing young duvet corners. Combining Gonzalez and Davis gave the Pats the liberty to elevate out no subject they wanted in protection.

In some unspecified time in the future of the favored-or-garden season, though, the Pats didn’t in truth play grand man, per chance to create lifestyles more uncomplicated for rookie security Craig Woodson. They were in man protection factual 37.2% of the time, which ranked twenty third within the league. While Kuhr went to playing man greater than 50% of the time within the Pats’ Week 15 loss to the Bills, they were in most cases a zone protection group. That extended via the first two weeks of the postseason.

On Sunday, though, the Patriots played man on 50% of Stidham’s dropbacks. They dominated Denver’s receivers within the job. Stidham went 11-of-16 for 97 yards against zone looks to be, nonetheless the Broncos starter used to be 6-of-15 for factual 36 yards with a landing and an interception (by Gonzalez) against man protection. Going in man looks to be allowed the Pats to blitz Stidham greater than 40% of the time, and he averaged factual 2.5 yards per creep are trying against the blitz.

Have been the Patriots willing to lean into man protection handiest attributable to the presence of Stidham and the fallacious climate in Denver? Or used to be this a model that they could be extra aggressive playing man within the Clear Bowl? Belichick used to be famously insistent on stopping the opposing group’s high playmaker in ample games. And while the Pats could per chance per chance per chance are trying sticking Gonzalez on Smith-Njigba, Belichick in most cases most well liked to bracket or double-group the opposing group’s well-known individual while sticking his handiest duvet nook on the opposing group’s 2nd-handiest wideout.

There’ll be hundreds of extra time to communicate about that in next week’s Clear Bowl preview, nonetheless on Sunday, the Pats were in a position to discover aggressive on protection and squeak out a close victory.