Key matchups, players to verify and projections for CFP quarterfinals

A rematch of one of the contentious national title games of the 2000s (Miami-Ohio Train). A rematch of a fun October note meet (Georgia-Ole Omit). A wrestle between novel-ish money (Oregon) and novel money (Texas Tech). A traditional matchup between a proven, unbeaten powerhouse (Indiana) and a scrappy shut-recreation-successful underdog (Alabama, somehow).

The quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff kick off Wednesday evening in Arlington, Texas, and they characteristic something for all people. They would possibly merely develop semifinals between four of the sport’s greatest brands or they’d merely give us a immense dose of novel-imprint vitality. They need to give us on the very least a pair of classics.

Right here’s everything or no longer it is a need to-need to apply for what scuttle appears to be delight in a dynamite spherical of games.

Updated CFP projections

We had two minor upsets within the first spherical, with two boulevard groups (Miami and Alabama) advancing for the first time. But the total title odds did not alternate all that powerful from an SP+ level of view.

Ohio Train and Indiana restful lead the methodology, and the Texas Tech-Oregon winner would possibly well be the No. 3 favourite, barring an upset in Arlington or Pasadena.

No. 2 Ohio Train vs. No. 10 Miami

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Traditional: Wednesday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

The 2003 Fiesta Bowl turned into the first traditional title recreation of the BCS generation. Miami, a 12-level favourite, turned into buying for every its second straight national title and 35th straight bag, but Ohio Train ripped off a 17-0 midgame coast, benefited from presumably the most talked-about circulate interference penalty within the sport’s historical previous and won a aesthetic two-additional time thriller.

This time, Ohio Train is the defending champ and a nearly double-digit favourite. Will we have in mind this one for the 23-year revenge, or will it close up merely as a step in a single other Buckeyes title march?

Ohio Train’s 3 greatest performs of 2025

As we did with the first-spherical preview, let’s explore on the supreme performs of the season for every team — in phrases of bag likelihood added — for the groups that had first-spherical byes.

1. Week 14 vs. Michigan: Julian Sayin‘s 35-yard touchdown circulate to Jeremiah Smith on fourth-and-5 (11:51 left within the second quarter). Get likelihood added: 16.4%.

2. Week 5 vs. Washington: Sayin’s 18-yard touchdown circulate to Smith (1:14 left within the second quarter). Get likelihood added: 15.2%.

Ohio Train started the season with a staunch bag over Texas and carried out with a staunch loss to Indiana. In between, the Buckeyes won 11 games by an realistic of 39-8. They have not confronted many shut-and-leisurely eventualities, as exemplified by the truth that the first two performs on this record took direct within the second quarter.

Clean, these were a pair of staunch “When in doubt, throw to Jeremiah” moments. Within the popular-or-backyard, Ohio Train trailed 6-3 after a slack launch up, but Smith’s TD — barely of controversial, as it regarded as if he would possibly have fumbled — gave the Buckeyes a lead they wouldn’t relinquish in a 27-9 bag. Within the latter, the Buckeyes yet as soon as more had to work previous a slack launch up in Seattle. They trailed 3-0 shut to halftime, but Smith came originate on barely of shuffle route and burst into the close zone.

The Buckeyes cruised 24-6.

3. Week 15 vs. Indiana: Brandon Inniss‘ 6-yard circulate to Bo Jackson, with a 15-yard Indiana non-public deplorable penalty (4:43 left within the fourth quarter). Get likelihood added: 13.1%.

Trailing Indiana 13-10 within the Worthy Ten championship recreation, Ohio Train had two potentialities to tie or map shut the lead, and after the first opportunity turned into thwarted by a fourth-and-1 close of Sayin, the Buckeyes ended up playing issues a long way too conservatively. After this machine play (and penalty) spiked the Buckeyes’ bag likelihood to 54.8%, they ended up trying a fourth-and-1 self-discipline purpose are trying and left out it.

Can Ohio Train get rid of the guardrails?

Ryan Day and his team had the total excellent elements for easing Sayin in at quarterback. The redshirt freshman, a ancient high-10 recruit, has already shown preternatural accuracy and true decision-making, but with every among the finest defense and most effective receiver duo within the nation (Smith and Carnell Tate), plus excessive-effectivity tight close Max Klare at his disposal, he turned into ready to work on the slowest likely tempo, throwing largely short and controlled passes, tossing the ball away on the first signal of trouble and sparkling any individual would at final develop a play.

Sayin’s trait radar chart hints at appropriate how controlled his play has been.

He would not throw a ton of downfield passes, and he’s staunch at leaving the pocket and discovering an originate safety-valve possibility sooner than power will get to him. And his seasonlong numbers are dynamite: 78.4% completion price (first within the nation), 3,323 passing yards (15th) and 31 touchdowns (second). Sayin turned into brought up to change into a mountainous-time quarterback, and he is aware of all of the if/then decisions. But barely than rapid throwaways, he would possibly per chance need to power the topic more for Ohio Train to bag three playoff games, and Day and his team would possibly per chance need to keep more belief in him — no more fourth-and-1 self-discipline purpose tries.

Though the Hoosiers allowed Sayin some easy completions on first and second downs, they were ready to frustrate him barely barely on third down.

First and second down: 16-for-20 for 178 yards, 1 touchdown, 3 sacks, 6.8 yards per dropback

Third down (no longer collectively with a recreation-ending Hail Mary): 4-for-8 for 34 yards, 1 interception, 2 sacks, 2.6 yards per dropback

Even with a total beginning offensive line of All-Worthy Ten performers (two second-team, three third-team), Ohio Train struggled to withhold power off Sayin in opposition to Indiana, and in Arlington the Buckeyes will face a Hurricanes defense that held an explosive Texas A&M assault to three ingredients and 4.4 yards per play. It turned into a drastically wind-aided effort, to make certain that, however the Canes held A&M backs to 2.8 yards per carry and sacked Marcel Reed seven cases. Basic person ends Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor mixed for 4.5 of them.

The Ohio Train coast recreation has change into more respectable, with freshman Jackson averaging 100.3 yards per recreation and 6.0 yards per carry (4.0 after contact) over his previous six games. A true efficiency from him would possibly per chance muffle the Miami circulate bustle, and Sayin restful has Smith and Tate at his disposal. But corner Keionte Scott and the Miami secondary are true, and Sayin hasn’t proved everything he needs to appropriate yet.

(Plus, there’s a possibility Smith goes fully ballistic within the CFP, to the level that nothing else matters. Ohio Train managed his workload just powerful at some level of the season, effectively sufficient that his stats did not carry out him the Biletnikoff Award as expected. He noticed.)

Can Carson Beck develop the performs?

The windy stipulations in College Feature made issues in particular untenable for every offenses: Miami’s Carson Beck threw for handiest 103 yards and averaged 4.0 yards per dropback with handiest four passes thrown more than 10 yards downfield. And he won. Safe to dispute, that will not going to reduce it this week.

Beck carried out 80% of his passes and averaged 281.3 yards in his previous four games sooner than A&M. At his most effective, he combines true decision-making with a willingness to map shut a explore at mountainous-time throws in mountainous moments. But when the interceptions launch up, incessantly they attach no longer close. He threw six in Miami’s two losses.

Wind would possibly merely no longer be a part indoors, on the very least, but Ohio Train’s defense will be. The Buckeyes boast incessantly half of the first-team All-Worthy Ten beginning defense in edge rusher Caden Curry (11 sacks, 11 coast stops), contend with Kayden McDonald (16 coast stops), linebackers Arvell Reese and Sonny Kinds, corner Davison Igbinosun (31% completion price allowed) and safety Caleb Downs. They have not given up more than 16 ingredients in a recreation; Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza turned the overwhelming Heisman favourite after manufacturing appropriate 13 on them.

Miami’s coast recreation is atmosphere pleasant, in particular when first-spherical MVP Tag Fletcher Jr. is working on the support of staunch guard Anez Cooper and staunch contend with Francis Mauigoa. Wideouts Keelan Marion and CJ Daniels are true perform players, too, but in Malachi Toney, Miami would possibly have a cheat code. He does barely of little bit of everything: He has received 353 yards from scrimmage on either carries or passes thrown at/on the support of the line of scrimmage, 342 on passes thrown between 1 and 10 yards downfield and 395 on passes thrown farther downfield. And he traces up practically wherever from snap to snap.

Toney has handiest begun his progression as an valid route runner, but when there’s dwelling (or a favorable matchup) readily accessible wherever on the self-discipline, offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson will send Toney there to milk it.

Ohio Train would not blitz powerful and is blissful to react and swarm to the ball, sparkling it has the superior athletes it needs. Miami would possibly per chance be ready to slice out some effectivity with Toney and Fletcher. But Beck presumably will restful need to approach support up mountainous if the Canes are to interrupt the 17-level barrier.

Projections

DraftKings: Ohio Train 26.0, Miami 16.5 (OSU -9.5, over/below 42.5)
SP+: Ohio Train 29.1, Miami 18.6

By college football requirements, this recreation would possibly per chance slide by in a blink. Miami averages 30.1 seconds per snap (ninth absolute most realistic within the nation), and Ohio Train averages 31.7 (second absolute most realistic), and neither team need to ask more than 10 or 11 possessions. That would every withhold the sport shut and magnify mistakes and left out alternatives. Ohio Train is preferred for a reason, but Miami has some involving playmakers.

No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 5 Oregon

Capital One Orange Bowl: Thursday, noon ET, ESPN

After years of looking to devise ways to surpass the Ohio States and Georgias of the enviornment, Oregon got handed by Indiana. Now the Geese need to fend off a West Texas outlier as effectively. Texas Tech made headlines by striking collectively an especially costly transfer class final iciness, however the Purple Raiders spent money on the supreme guys, getting immense contributions from identified stars, journeymen and contributors from every the SEC and FCS. Tech has zipped up the college football ladder rapid, but no one is aware of higher than Oregon that this subsequent step is the hardest of all.

Texas Tech’s 3 greatest performs of 2025

1. Week 8 vs. Arizona Train: Will Hammond‘s 12-yard touchdown circulate to Reggie Virgil (2:05 left within the fourth quarter). Get likelihood added: 30.6%.

Tech hasn’t left powerful doubt in 2025. The Purple Raiders have won 12 games — collectively with three in opposition to SP+ high-20 opponents (BYU twice, Utah as soon as) — by an realistic of 44-10, and neither the sportsbooks nor the algorithms have caught up to their level. They’re 12-1 in opposition to the unfold, and they topped SP+ projections in 11 games, collectively with 10 straight with quarterback Behren Morton wholesome. Their handiest blemish came in opposition to Arizona Train without Morton; Hammond led a leisurely comeback, but for virtually the handiest time all season, the defense blinked, giving up a touchdown power within the final two minutes. This turned into the handiest Tech recreation determined by fewer than 22 ingredients.

2. Week 6 vs. Houston: Morton’s 69-yard touchdown circulate to Cameron Dickey (1:07 left within the first quarter). Get likelihood added: 12.4%.

3. Week 4 vs. Utah: Hammond’s 24-yard touchdown circulate to Terrance Carter Jr. (8:36 left within the fourth quarter). Get likelihood added: 12.3%.

There have not been many alternatives for Tech to present its leisurely-recreation fortitude, however the Purple Raiders no doubt proved something at Utah. Morton turned into injured within the first half, however the Tech defense shut down an otherwise sparkling Utah offense, and the dam at final burst. Carter’s touchdown keep Tech up 20-10, and it rapid piled on two more scores to bag 34-10.

Oregon’s offense vs. Texas Tech’s defense: among the finest matchup of the quarterfinals

In phrases of pure skedaddle and playmaking, or no longer it is worthy for school football to recover than what we are going to watch when Oregon has the ball.

Within the first spherical at dwelling, Oregon incessantly suggested James Madison, “We are faster than you, and you will not stop us.” In opposition to a defense that hadn’t given up more than 28 ingredients all season, the Geese scored Forty eight in three quarters, with Dante Moore averaging 20.5 yards per completion (three players had 40-yard catches) and backs Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill Jr. averaging 12.8 yards per carry. All-Worthy Ten tight close Kenyon Sadiq, a key figure in leisurely-season wins over Minnesota and USC, barely even got alive to, and the Geese restful did whatever they wished.

Oregon ranks fifth nationally in success price* and first in share of performs gaining on the very least 20 yards (10.8%). That’s a staunch combination.

(*Success price: how continuously an offense beneficial properties 50% of well-known yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third or fourth.)

But Tech’s defense ranks third in every classes. The Purple Raiders are moreover third in defensive SP+, and in opposition to three high-15 defenses (Indiana, Iowa and Washington), Oregon averaged a mortal 21.3 ingredients and 5.4 yards per play. The coast recreation turned into restful effectively atmosphere pleasant, however the mountainous performs vanished. Moore averaged appropriate 10.8 yards per completion, and the Geese scored TDs on handiest two of 10 purple zone trips. If the Geese wouldn’t have a clear athleticism merit, the assault can derive gummed up, and they would possibly be able to not count on many mismatches in opposition to Tech.

Tech is first in yards allowed per carry (no longer collectively with sacks) and third in yards allowed per dropback. Jacob Rodriguez is the Havoc King of 2025, and indispensable person transfer David Bailey is kind of the sacks king (he has 13.5). In Romello Peak and 330-pound contend with Lee Hunter, the Purple Raiders have two other 10-TFL guys, and corners Brice Pollock and Amier Boyd have allowed a 39% completion price with seven interceptions and eight breakups. Tech compelled on the very least two turnovers in 10 games, made on the very least seven tackles for loss in eight, and no opponent produced even a 40% success price (the national realistic in all FBS games turned into 42.7%). The quarterfinals are loaded with gorgeous defenses, but Tech’s grades out as effectively as any.

Needless to claim, Tech has played in opposition to handiest one high-15 offense. In fact, Utah and BYU are the handiest two high-40 offenses the Purple Raiders have confronted. They controlled an gorgeous Utah offensive line, but Oregon’s is as staunch or higher — four linemen earned on the very least third-team All-Worthy Ten attach, led by left guard Emmanuel Pregnon — and Moore would possibly well be among the finest QB they’ve encountered. Oregon will presumably need to work that level total into on the very least the mid-20s, and Tech makes you carry out every yard. I can not await this matchup.

Can we belief Texas Tech’s offense?

Within the origin explore, the Tech offense appears just dynamite: The Purple Raiders have scored 34 or more ingredients 11 cases, backs Dickey and J’Koby Williams have mixed for 2,469 yards from scrimmage and 24 touchdowns, and Morton has raised his recreation to attach profession highs in completion price and yards per dropback and a profession low in interception price. And Morton’s receiving corps boasts 5 capability slide-to alternate options in mountainous-play Caleb Douglas (54 catches), Virgil (55), Coy Eakin (47), tight close Carter (46) and the combo of Williams and Dickey (54). Plus, mountainous-legged kicker Stone Harrington‘s vary stretches previous the mid-50s.

The defense actually has pushed everything for Tech, despite the incontrovertible truth that. The Purple Raiders have among the finest realistic beginning self-discipline situation within the nation, which papers over some cracks within the offense. They’re twenty seventh in turnover price (worst amongst quarterfinalists despite playing a comparatively lighter agenda), 35th in success price (second worst), 51st in share of performs gaining zero or much less yards (second worst), 98th in purple zone TD price (worst), 107th in stuff price allowed (worst) and 134th in offensive line penalties per recreation (worst). And despite the incontrovertible truth that Morton ranks a profession-most effective twenty ninth in Total QBR, that’s restful the worst ranking of any quarterfinal quarterback.

Despite the rubbish-time masterpiece James Madison painted within the first spherical, Oregon would possibly well be among the finest defense Tech has confronted. The Geese have played in opposition to 5 high-20 offenses (per SP+), but they’re restful sixth in yards allowed per play, 16th in success price allowed and, presumably most disconcerting for a Tech offense constructed spherical random explosions, third in yards allowed per winning play. Dillon Thieneman is one of the effective safeties within the nation, corner Brandon Finney Jr. has given up handiest 9 completions in 33 targets, linebacker Bryce Boettcher is a scuttle and prolific tackler, and edge rusher Teitum Tuioti has 7.5 sacks but is even higher in opposition to the coast.

There would possibly be a weakness-versus-weakness part to this matchup, as Tech supplies up too many negative performs, but Oregon would not carry out a ton of them (97th in TFLs per recreation). And despite the incontrovertible truth that Tech’s offense is shadowy within the purple zone, Oregon’s defense is strangely even worse (117th in purple zone TD price allowed). But the Geese would possibly per chance flip this into more of a rock fight than Tech has encountered this season. Needless to claim, Tech’s defense would possibly per chance revel in that appropriate just.

Projections

DraftKings: Oregon 27.5, Texas Tech 25.0 (Oregon -2.5, over/below 52.5)
SP+: Texas Tech 28.1, Oregon 25.6

The line has moved toward Oregon despite the computers favoring Tech (FPI has Tech by 0.3 ingredients). If there’s any create of “Go with the team that’s been here before” part, that makes sense. But yet as soon as more, the sportsbooks (and their bettors) have drastically underestimated Tech all season. No one ought to be stunned if the Purple Raiders reach; they’ve been just loudly demonstrating how staunch they are all season.

No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 9 Alabama

Rose Bowl Sport Offered by Prudential: Thursday, 4 p.m. ET, ESPN

I have never hidden my disdain for CFP quarterfinals being just-trouble games at predominant bowl sites, but whereas we’re lacking out on the likelihood to verify Alabama play within the supreme recreation within the historical previous of Bloomington’s Memorial Stadium, I’m making a wager IU fans are on the very least partially OK with it, if handiest because they’ve one other box to verify. Now that the Hoosiers have won their first Worthy Ten title in 58 years, or no longer it is moreover time for them to develop their first Rose Bowl day commute in 58 years. That’s just cool, despite the incontrovertible truth that uncommon, rainy stipulations await, and despite the incontrovertible truth that final year’s unbeaten high seed did not revel in its Pasadena day commute powerful.

Indiana’s 3 greatest performs of 2025

1. Week 11 vs. Penn Train: Fernando Mendoza’s 7-yard touchdown circulate to Omar Cooper Jr. (41 seconds left within the fourth quarter). Get likelihood added: 52.5%.

It is likely you’ll per chance also have in mind this one.

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 8, 2025

I delight in it when among the finest play of the season is moreover one of the well-known supreme.

2. Week 5 vs. Iowa: Mendoza’s 49-yard touchdown circulate to Elijah Sarratt (1:36 left within the fourth quarter). Get likelihood added: 41.4%.

A week after humiliating No. 9 Illinois, Indiana had to every withhold a long way from a hangover and wrestle an underrated Iowa team at Kinnick Stadium. The rating turned into tied at 13-13 when Iowa’s Zach Lutmer snagged a deflected Mendoza circulate and returned it into self-discipline purpose vary. But Drew Stevens left out a 42-yard are trying. Given a second likelihood, Mendoza hit Sarratt on a slant, and Sarratt took it from there. IU survived 20-15.

3. Week 11 vs. Penn Train: Mendoza’s 29-yard circulate to Riley Nowakowski (1:13 left within the fourth quarter). Get likelihood added: 24.2%.

Granted, IU would have restful reached the Worthy Ten championship recreation had it lost to Penn Train, but no single power proved the Hoosiers’ fortitude more than the individual that attach up Cooper’s recreation winner. IU had watched a 20-7 lead flip into a surprising, leisurely 24-20 deficit, but a nearly excellent 10-play, 80-yard power — complemented by this immense win from the second-team all-conference tight close — saved the day.

What can an upstart delight in Bama develop to extinguish a behemoth delight in Indiana?

Sorry, I desired to watch what that header regarded delight in in print. But or no longer it is no longer in particular mistaken.

Indiana is second in SP+ and has scored presumably the two most impressive wins of the season, beating Oregon in Eugene and Ohio Train in Indianapolis. Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers are third in every ingredients and ingredients allowed per power. They’re first in third-down conversion price and third in third-down conversion price allowed. They have the Heisman winner (Mendoza) and a receiver duo (Sarratt and Cooper) that would possibly merely be the nation’s most effective exterior of Columbus. Left contend with Carter Smith has given up one sack all season. The Hoosiers have four first-team All-Worthy Ten defenders in contend with Tyrique Tucker, linebacker Aiden Fisher, corner D’Angelo Ponds and safety Louis Moore. They power turnovers and commit practically none.

Alabama, within the intervening time, is a wrestle-tested, shut-recreation winner with a true defense and few absolute stars. Kalen DeBoer’s Tide had handiest two first-team All-SEC performers: left contend with Kadyn Proctor and safety Bray Hubbard, the handiest Bama player within the pinnacle 40 of our CFP player rankings. The Crimson Tide’s coast recreation has been shockingly mediocre (127th in yards per carry, no longer collectively with sacks). But they’ve gone 4-1 in a single-rating finishes. They’ve won four games whereby they were outgained, and they were outgained by more than 100 yards in every of their previous two wins. They play delight in scrappy, effectively-coached underdogs, successful on the margins.

You want sacrifice any data of either team’s historical previous for any of this to develop sense.

Admire Oregon, Alabama appears to be getting a familiarity reduce discover from the oddsmakers. SP+ initiatives Indiana as a 13.2-level favourite, practically a touchdown’s difference with the unfold. If these groups play delight in realistic versions of themselves, the Hoosiers bag. But the nearer it remains, the more the ability builds on the favorites.

So let’s stroll via the aptitude warning signs the Goliath from Bloomington need to learn about out for in opposition to the scrappy David from Tuscaloosa. (Sorry yet as soon as more, I’ll close.)

1. The IU coast recreation will not be any longer gaining powerful. Offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan entrusts Mendoza with a excessive-level-of-trouble passing assault. Only 21% of Mendoza’s passes have centered players at or on the support of the line (111th within the nation), and handiest 24% of IU’s targets were deemed as “wide open” by Sports activities Records Solutions (122nd). Mendoza is blitzed loads, and he throws a great deal of contested passes. He has carried out a excessive share of these contested balls, but you want as many easy yards as likely, and IU incessantly will get those from the coast recreation. Backs Roman Hemby, Kaelon Dim and Khobie Martin combine for 166.8 yards per recreation, and the Hoosiers wicked fourth in speeding success price. They develop an infinite job of heading off third-and-long, which is a mountainous step toward having the nation’s most effective third-down conversion price.

But Alabama’s defense ranks Tenth in speeding success price allowed. The Tide are true up front, contend with LT Overton is strolling again from hurt, and linebacker Deontae Lawson‘s production has ramped up — he has three TFLs and 5 coast stops in his previous three games (plus a sack, a compelled fumble and a breakup in opposition to Oklahoma). The Tide held Georgia backs to three.9 yards per carry within the SEC championship recreation. They would possibly merely render the Hoosiers one-dimensional.

Now, this will not be any longer a defense constructed to contest a great deal of passes. The Tide play an efficient but no longer extremely disruptive zone defense.

Clean, corners Zabien Brown and Dijon Lee Jr. are true playmakers, and forcing Mendoza to develop a total bunch performs on passing downs would be Step 1 toward an upset.

2. Ty Simpson has time. Alabama’s quarterback is aware of about excessive degrees of trouble. He hasn’t had a coast recreation to lean on, but he has restful thrown for 3,500 yards with 28 TDs vs. 5 interceptions. He has shown signs of wobbliness, despite the incontrovertible truth that: In opposition to Auburn and Georgia leisurely within the season, he carried out appropriate 51% of his passes and averaged 3.7 yards per dropback. And because the Tide were falling on the support of 17-0 to Oklahoma within the first spherical, his first seven dropbacks generated 4 yards. Simpson rebounded, with support from some ravishing catches by Lotzeir Brooks and Germie Bernard, but he moreover took four sacks, and his footwork betrayed him at cases.

Indiana’s circulate bustle is dynamite (seventh in sack price) despite a low blitz price, and if the Hoosiers can stress Simpson and withhold his feet shaky, they are going to be on high of issues. If he has time to plant his feet and develop performs, he and his receivers would possibly per chance appropriate develop so.

3. Fourth downs change into an topic. Indiana owns third downs. Fourth downs, no longer so powerful. The Hoosiers slide for it appropriate 34% of the time in opposition territory (100th in FBS), and they’re appropriate 8-for-16 on fourth-down attempts for the season (50%, 91st).

Alabama, on the alternative hand, goes for it 49% of the time in opposition territory (twenty ninth), converting 65% of the time total (Twenty third). The Tide realistic 6.4 ingredients after fourth-down conversions (15th), which is a staunch step toward successful shut games.

How powerful will Daley’s hurt agonize the Hoosiers?

For some reason, Stephen Daley turned into merely honorable mention All-Worthy Ten, however the Kent Train defensive close transfer would possibly had been the supreme player on the IU defense. His 19 TFLs trailed handiest Texas Tech’s David Bailey amongst CFP defenders, and he led the team in coast stops. I’m the exercise of the previous aggravating because Daley turned into lost for the season in opposition to Ohio Train. If you practically never need to map shut risks to generate power, that’s a immense plus. We’ll watch if IU’s risk profile adjustments without Daley and, in case it does, if Bama can punish the Hoosiers with counterpunches.

Projections

DraftKings: Indiana 27.0, Alabama 20.5 (Indiana -6.5, over/below 47.5)
SP+: Indiana 31.4, Alabama 18.2

To me, this one’s all concerning the Hoosiers. They’re the unbeaten high seed, and they’ve already scored a pair of immense wins, but we have considered a number of upstarts falter after they derive shut to the mountaintop. Alabama is a effectively-coached and courageous foe, but IU’s A-recreation ought to be too powerful. It is up to the Hoosiers to carry that A-recreation to Pasadena.

No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 6 Ole Omit

Allstate Sugar Bowl: Thursday, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

Again in mid-October, Kirby Radiant’s Bulldogs unleashed a leisurely 17-0 coast to flip a 35-26 deficit into a 43-35 bag over Lane Kiffin’s Rebels in Athens. About 11 weeks later, with Kiffin off to LSU, UGA will are trying to develop it yet as soon as more in opposition to Pete Golding’s Rebels. Ole Omit turned into gorgeous in dispatching Tulane within the first spherical; now comes a possibility to retake the handiest standard-season examination it failed.

Georgia’s 3 greatest performs of 2025

1. Week 3 vs. Tennessee: Josh McCray‘s 1-yard touchdown (additional time). Get likelihood added: 22.7%.

2. Week 3 vs. Tennessee: Gunner Stockton‘s 28-yard touchdown circulate to London Humphreys on fourth-and-6 (2:40 left within the fourth quarter). Get likelihood added: 22.4%.

Georgia came awfully shut to losing twice in September. Two weeks sooner than a dwelling loss to Alabama, the Dawgs noticed Tennessee a 21-7 lead — and trailed two other cases — but Stockton-to-Humphreys tied the rating leisurely. Tennessee’s Max Gilbert left out a 42-yard self-discipline purpose are trying on the close of regulation, and also you would possibly presumably no longer ever give a Radiant team second existence. McCray’s additional time TD gave the Dawgs an unlikely bag. “I feel almost like we have to apologize,” Radiant said after the sport. “I don’t think that we should have won that game.”

3. Week 10 vs. Florida: Chauncey Bowens‘ 36-yard touchdown coast (4:43 left within the fourth quarter). Get likelihood added: 19.9%.

The Dawgs had to work corpulent shifts to derive previous Auburn, Ole Omit and Florida as effectively sooner than finally transferring into equipment. They trailed Florida with 5 minutes left, in actuality, except Bowens’ TD coast bailed them out. One thing constantly does.

What has modified since Oct. 18?

In these groups’ first slide-spherical, Ole Omit frail a rapid tempo and valid passing from Trinidad Chambliss to rating touchdowns on its first 5 possessions. Georgia, within the intervening time, moved at a plodding tempo but played with relentless physicality and effectivity, and at final the defense solved its puzzle. The Dawgs played a nearly excellent fourth quarter, gaining 143 yards to the Rebels’ 13. Stockton went 6-for-6 passing for 71 yards and two TDs within the fourth quarter, and Chambliss went 1-for-10 for 1 yard.

This turned into a worthy observation to total an otherwise nip-and-tuck recreation, however the staunch data for Ole Omit is that rematches don’t most incessantly apply the the same script because the distinctive. At the side of two rematches within the CFP first spherical, the scoring margin modified by an realistic of 16.0 ingredients in this season’s eight rematches.

Granted, a shift in 16 ingredients would possibly per chance indicate either an Ole Omit bag or a Georgia blowout, but either methodology, issues develop alternate.

The supreme part that has modified since Oct. 18 is that Georgia’s defense has ignited. It is younger than standard, with much less proven indispensable person vitality, and it persevered to wrestle bursts of inconsistency for a pair of weeks after the Ole Omit recreation. But striking faith in much less experienced players at final paid off for Radiant and coordinator Glenn Schumann.

Sophomore Chris Cole stuffed in for injured all-conference linebacker CJ Allen and thrived. Versatile junior Gabe Harris Jr., in his first year of heavy motion, started lining up everywhere the attach, from defensive contend with to interior linebacker, and after recording 2.5 TFLs in his first 9 games, he made four in his final four. (But he’s out for this one due to a turf toe hurt.) Redshirt freshman corners Ellis Robinson IV and Demello Jones, lining up reverse all-conference corner Daylen Everette, were centered 22 cases within the previous four games and gave up handiest 116 yards with two interceptions and three breakups. (Robinson hasn’t given up a touchdown since the first Bama recreation.) Even freshman Zayden Walker has carved out a circulate-speeding niche on third-and-long.

The Dawgs carried out the popular-or-backyard season playing their most effective defense since the 2021-22 national title runs. They gave up 7.3 ingredients per recreation and a paltry 33.0% success price over their previous four games. They went from giving up 6.3 yards per dropback to 4.9 and supercharged every their power price (from 31.2% to 39.2%) and interception price (from 1.4% to three.7%). That defense we noticed within the fourth quarter in opposition to Ole Omit is de facto what we noticed down the stretch, despite the incontrovertible truth that we are going to watch how powerful of a distinction Harris’ absence makes.

Granted, Ole Omit’ offense hasn’t precisely been chopped liver: The Rebels have averaged 37.7 ingredients since the Georgia loss. Chambliss torched Oklahoma for 315 passing yards and 58 non-sack speeding yards, and after a glitchy efficiency in opposition to South Carolina, he carried out 77% of his passes, with 9 TDs to one INT, over his previous four games. The Ferris Train transfer has appropriate been so true and effectively rounded this season.

Kewan Lacy has helped. The sophomore rushed for handiest 31 yards in opposition to Georgia — he had handiest one carry within the fourth quarter because the sport turned into slipping away — but he ran offended in November. In his previous 5 games, he has averaged 134.0 yards and 6.2 yards per carry (a whopping 4.3 after contact). Every Lacy and Chambliss briefly exited the Tulane recreation due to injuries, and Lacy gave the affect to be combating barely barely of shoulder agonize. It would clearly be a immense deal if Lacy is specific in any admire Thursday, but he’s listed as probable, on the very least.

Can the Georgia offense flip the switch yet as soon as more?

As Georgia’s defense caught fire, the offense faltered barely. The Dawgs averaged appropriate 4.2 yards per play, with a 35.1% success price and appropriate three beneficial properties of 20-plus yards, in opposition to Georgia Tech and Alabama. Fragment of this turned into a wide awake shift as soon as the defense turned impenetrable — Stockton went from averaging 7.1 air yards per circulate in his first 9 games to 5.0 in his previous four, with 49% of his passes focused on players at or on the support of the line. But an offense that hasn’t shown powerful explosiveness all season showed even much less.

Radiant is a defense-minded coach who would possibly merely no longer dial up risks if he would not actually feel the need, but Georgia played with fire in a 16-9 rock-fight bag over Georgia Tech, then allowed seven TFLs in opposition to Alabama. Possibility or no risk, they restful need to be sharper, and they’ll need to gain this sharpness despite going nearly a month between games.

But Georgia turned into completely punishing within the first assembly with Ole Omit. Stockton turned into 26-for-31 with a heavy dose of tight ends Lawson Luckie and Oscar Delp (mixed: 9 catches for 85 yards), whereas Nate Frazier and Bowens mixed for 27 carries and 133 yards. Ole Omit has allowed winning price over 41% appropriate twice all season, but Georgia turned into at 61% in Athens, 67% when working on the support of left guard Micah Morris and left contend with Monroe Freeling. The Rebels paid the discover for never knocking the Dawgs off agenda.

The Rebels defend the circulate just powerful, but they’re 67th in speeding success price allowed and 77th in yards allowed per carry (no sacks). Tackles Will Echoles and Zxavian Harris have taken phase in 26 coast stops, however the Rebels compelled handiest two negative rushes in opposition to Georgia. And even whereas dominating Tulane within the first spherical, they gave up 84 yards in 15 carries to the Inexperienced Wave’s Jamauri McClure. If Georgia is ready to derive 4 or 5 yards on every first-down bustle, and if Stockton would not need to develop powerful besides throwing shows to electrical slot man Zachariah Branch, nothing else will topic.

Projections

DraftKings: Georgia 31.0, Ole Omit 24.5 (UGA -6.5, over/below 55.5)
SP+: Georgia 27.1, Ole Omit 26.8

After the first recreation between the groups, Ole Omit ranked 12th in SP+ and Georgia ranked Tenth. Now they’re sixth and fifth, respectively. Even with Ole Omit’ teaching alternate (and coast defense) and UGA’s stodgy offense, every were in gorgeous create the final we noticed them. All over yet as soon as more, the making a wager line favors the acquainted playoff entity over the newcomer, but Ole Omit has constructed toward this moment for a whereas. The Rebels will give themselves a possibility if they’ll knock the Dawgs off agenda every so continuously.