Men’s March Madness: Predictions, previews for every Candy 16 game Friday

The predominant half of of the Elite Eight is decided with Arizona, Illinois, Purdue and Iowa punching their tickets Thursday. Who might perchance per chance be half of them in the regional finals of the 2026 men’s NCAA tournament?

ESPN college basketball newshounds Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf construct their picks for every Candy 16 game Friday and shatter down every team’s keys to advancing.

All conditions Jap.

(5) St. John’s vs. (1) Duke

7:10 p.m., CBS

Borzello’s prediction: Duke 73-71
Medcalf’s prediction: Duke 77-70

How St. John’s can come to the Elite Eight: The point of hobby of Rick Pitino’s game notion against Duke obviously shall be centered on slowing down Cameron Boozer. St. John’s has one amongst the elite defenses in college basketball, however what the Crimson Storm originate no longer receive is the invent of length and athleticism which receive shy Boozer at conditions. Powerful of the responsibility will fall on the person defensive skills of Zuby Ejiofor and Dillon Mitchell, with the latter doubtlessly tasked with chasing Isaiah Evans in the half of court docket.

Offensively, the Crimson Storm receive to relief up their improved 3-point shooting. Earlier than the NCAA tournament, they hadn’t made double-digit 3s in a game since Jan. 10. They’ve now carried out it in both tournament video games, collectively with 11 against Kansas.

How Duke can come to Elite Eight: Duke has two areas of help on every team: Boozer and its protection. When the Blue Devils turned up the warmth defensively against TCU in the 2d spherical and commenced playing thru Boozer on the offensive discontinue, they started to dominate the Horned Frogs and fully changed the sport. Boozer is the perfect player on the court docket every time he performs, though Pitino, a Corridor of Standing coach, and Broad East Participant of the twelve months Ejiofor will hope to insensible him down.

Duke’s protection, the discontinue-ranked unit in adjusted defensive effectivity at KenPom, has very few weaknesses — however the Crimson Storm are no longer built in the final word vogue to reason fixed considerations for the Blue Devils. They’ve shot the ball better fair no longer too lengthy ago, however they’re removed from a fixed 3-point shooting team, and they rely intently on offensive rebounds and free throws. Duke does an out of this world job of limiting opponents in both areas. — Borzello

(4) Alabama vs. (1) Michigan

7:35 p.m., TBS/truTV

Borzello’s prediction: Michigan 92-83
Medcalf’s prediction: Michigan 90-80

How Alabama can come to the Elite Eight: It be no longer a secret, however Alabama must construct a barrage of 3s to receive any probability of staying conclude with Michigan. The Crimson Tide lead the nation in 3-pointers made per game, 3-point attempts per game and 3-point try charge. They made 19 3s in a 2d-spherical catch over Texas Tech. That has to continue against Michigan, as this might perchance occasionally be be extraordinarily stressful to catch continuously at the rim against Aday Mara and Morez Johnson Jr. Defensively, or no longer it is going to be an uphill wrestle. Alabama has given up plentiful scoring efforts to appropriate teams on multiple occasions, and the Crimson Tide disagreeable in the center of the pack in the SEC in defensive effectivity.

This game is going to feature heaps of facets and heaps tempo. Alabama might perchance per chance no longer encourage down from a working game with Michigan, and a shootout might perchance per chance play into the Tide’s hands.

How Michigan can come to Elite Eight: When Michigan leans into its strengths — its frontcourt, dimension and capability to dominate the paint at both ends of the court docket — there are few teams in the country able to competing with the Wolverines for 40 minutes. Mara is a drive at the rim defensively, and is becoming a more fixed option on offense, and Yaxel Lendeborg has proven he can rob over video games on offense. Alabama would now not receive the skill or talent up front to envision Michigan, and would now not offer mighty rim security, rating conclude to the backside of the SEC in block percentage.

The diversified key for the Wolverines shall be whether Roddy Gayle Jr. and Nimari Burnett can insensible down important person Alabama guard Labaron Philon Jr., who had 29 facets in the first spherical and 12 assists in the 2d spherical. He’s able to carrying the Crimson Tide. — Borzello

(3) Michigan Remark vs. (2) UConn

9:forty five p.m., CBS

Borzello’s prediction: UConn 68-64
Medcalf’s prediction: UConn 70-65

How Michigan Remark can come to Elite Eight: Personnel matchups generate the most headlines at some stage in the NCAA tournament, however coaching matchups are equally — if no longer more — impactful. At some stage in a tenure that started in 1995, Tom Izzo has developed an uncanny capability to zero in on an opposing team’s high avid gamers and manufacture considerations for them. That is the Spartans’ sign to at least one other Elite Eight.

Izzo’s predominant mission against UConn is to restrict Tarris Reed Jr.’s affect on the sport. The Huskies are a diversified team when he’s a dominant presence in the publish. If Reed is grabbing offensive rebounds and giving them an abundance of 2d-probability opportunities, Michigan Remark shall be in a stressful set apart apart. The accurate news for the Spartans is that they’re connecting on 35.9% of their 3-point attempts and capitalizing on 2d-probability opportunities with a No. 10 national rating in offensive rebounding charge. This is also key for them to hit more 3s, lengthen UConn’s protection and manufacture more paths to the basket for Jeremy Fears Jr. & Co. They receive to give UConn a motive to guard on the perimeter — if the Spartans staunch allow the Huskies to sit down in the lane, downside photos around the rim and snatch rebounds, Michigan Remark might perchance per chance lose.

Izzo has been on this location before — against better teams — and won. His skills will topic in a matchup against Dan Hurley.

How UConn can come to the Elite Eight: To beat Izzo, UConn must demonstrate up because the discontinue-notch defensive outfit that held UCLA to staunch a 39% clip within the arc in the 2d spherical. The Huskies’ catch over the Bruins served as a reminder that and they is a mammoth defensive team after they settle on to be. Within the Broad Ten tournament, UCLA had produced 132 facets per 100 possessions in a catch over Michigan Remark. Within the spherical of 32, the Bruins — who performed with out main scorer Tyler Bilodeau (knee) — scored fully 57 facets, their 2d-lowest complete of the season. UCLA important person Donovan Dent had nine assists however also accomplished 2-for-9 shooting with a pair of turnovers. That is the the same attention UConn must give Fears. When he’s excited, Michigan Remark’s offense soars. The Huskies can’t let that happen.

On offense, Braylon Mullins also can very effectively be an X ingredient. Reed had a double-double against UCLA however no longer the ancient numbers he build up against Furman in the first spherical (31 facets, 27 rebounds). Alex Karaban recorded a career-excessive 27 facets against the Bruins, with Solo Ball and Silas Demary Jr. scoring two facets blended. If Reed and Karaban can manufacture a balanced interior-outdoor attack, Michigan Remark must obtain a manner to disrupt that, which might perchance per chance perchance give Mullins — who’s averaging 14.5 facets in two NCAA tournament video games — more freedom and opportunities to construct performs and manufacture off the dribble or on off-ball monitors.

The Huskies receive a huge kind of solutions to catch, and as lengthy as most of them are efficient, they’ll fetch encourage to the Elite Eight. — Medcalf

(6) Tennessee vs. (2) Iowa Remark

10:10 p.m., TBS/truTV

Borzello’s prediction: Iowa Remark 67-65
Medcalf’s prediction: Iowa Remark 74-68

How Tennessee can come to the Elite Eight: To beat Iowa Remark, Tennessee must play the the same disciplined protection that stopped Virginia in the closing minutes of Sunday’s 2d-spherical game. That project begins with Felix Okpara, who had four blocks against the Cavaliers and altered diversified photos, collectively with a slack drive by Thijs De Ridder that Okpara blocked at some stage in Virginia’s comeback try. Opposing avid gamers had made completely 30% of their photos around the rim against Okpara getting into Sunday’s game, per Synergy Sports actions recordsdata. He’ll receive to guard the rim against Iowa Remark, which had a prime help in paint facets against Kentucky (34-20) — however he might perchance per chance no longer receive to construct it on my own.

Tennessee has the personnel to address every person-on-one matchup defensively. The Vols can guard at every set apart apart. They’re going to receive to position stress on Tamin Lipsey, sharpshooter Milan Momcilovic and Joshua Jefferson, if he performs, to catch. That defensive effort coupled with standout performances from Ja’Kobi Gillespie and Nate Ament will be the system for a Tennessee time out to the Elite Eight.

How Iowa Remark can come to the Elite Eight: With or with out Jefferson, Iowa Remark might perchance receive the the same blueprint against Tennessee: Transfer the ball to search out the perfect shot on offense, drive turnovers with defensive stress and catch on immediate breaks. Though they did now not receive Jefferson, who’s a game-time option as a result of an ankle afflict, the Cyclones forced 20 turnovers of their 2d-spherical catch over Kentucky. Taking half in thru Lipsey — who accomplished with 26 facets, 10 assists and fully three turnovers against Kentucky — the Cyclones registered 150 facets per 100 possessions and made 63% of their photos after halftime. They’re 18-2 when Lipsey’s help-to-turnover ratio is 3-to-1 or better.

Gillespie and Ament blended for five turnovers in Tennessee’s 2d-spherical catch over Virginia. Iowa Remark can stress that duo into the the same mistakes Otega Oweh and Denzel Aberdeen (eight turnovers blended) made for Kentucky, even supposing Jefferson sits out one other game. That is how the Cyclones can come. — Medcalf